Feel free to address your heartfelt apologies to Nick Krall, c/o Great American Ball Park, 100 Joe Nuxhall Way, Cincinnati, OH 45202. Many of you will balk. That’s understandable. Admitting we’re wrong is a chore. It requires packing up our considerable egos and putting them away for another rainy day. But, it’s okay to be wrong. To be wrong is to be alive.

Ownership sent Krall out to face the public and answer for their dirty work while they hid behind closed doors, save for Phil Castellini’s embarrassing frat boy act on Opening Day.

Following the 2021 season, Cincinnati could have built on the foundation that was there and made a run. They could have admitted they made a mistake after the 2014 season, waiting until the fruit was overripe before selling. You’d think a produce magnate would know better. You’d think the powers that be would have recognized that after more than half a decade of wandering in the desert, they owed their fan base. But pride goeth before the fall. Cincinnati needed its All Star moment; and Bob Castellini was going to give it to this river town, dag-gummit, even if it meant wrecking the immediate future of the franchise because he’s just an owner, not a baseball guy. Bob has always meddled. Like many people of extreme wealth, particularly those who have built their own business, they believe their brilliance translates to any endeavor they turn their gaze toward.

I don’t have to cite minor league numbers to convince anyone of Krall’s success. I’d rather point to the people who follow this for a living:

Ben Clemens over at Fangraphs said:

Will the Mariners regret trading Marte? Maybe. He’s the prospect I’d lose the most sleep over dealing this deadline, with all due respect to the Nationals’ haul. Did they overpay for Castillo given the rest of the market? Possibly.

Krall didn’t stop there. He made another substantive move, according to many:

Can't reiterate how much I like the Mahle to the Twins trade as far as the return coming back to Cincinnati

( INF Spencer Steer, 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, LHP Steven Hajjar)

(cc: @LockedOnReds) pic.twitter.com/BPmFeAEr1F

— Locked On MLB Prospects (@LockedOnFarm) August 2, 2022

With that rant out of the way, in the market as it stands in baseball today, it seems like the four prospects that the Reds got in this deal was a quality return and probably more than many would have expected. Getting two top 50 prospects in baseball would have been a deal that I would have considered a return that was a little better than I expected given the market over the past few years. That they got that, as well as two other live arms seems like a good get in the current time of the market.

Of course, praise Krall, and the first thing you’ll hear is “Mike Minor.” As if one trade/signing defines a GM. I refer to this as Walt Jocketty Syndrome. There was a palpable joy on blogs and radio for bashing Jock trades when ownership gave marching orders to the front office to the tune of “we paid for Joey and DatDude, now make do with less.” That’s how you get Skip, Ryan Ludwick, Jack Hannahan, et al.

It’s a simple, undeniable fact: if you’re an active GM, you’re going to get bitten. It’s just part of the job. You live with it and move on. You think the Cardinals GM who traded away Sandy Alcantara goes home and kicks his dog every time the Marlin pitcher deals another gem, like he did against the Reds?

Hopefully you only make those mistakes on short term contracts or prospects who fail to launch. And It’s not about the money. It’s about the years. It’s not that they paid Mike Moustakas $16M. It’s that they’ll do it for 4 years.

Where do the Reds go from here? It’s anyone’s guess. I’m skeptical things will change in the long run. The reason the organization never sticks to a plan is simple: ownership meddling. The minute things aren’t going exactly to plan, it’s hard not to think Thurston Howell IV is going to step in and change the coordinates on the yacht and head into a new direction—another storm.

I get it. Not a fan of prospects? Where do you think major league players come from? The stork? We shouldn’t have to ask our fathers to explain this to us. However, as Doug Gray reminded me the other day, it’s perfectly acceptable to be angry at the way ownership has lied to its fan base over the years. But blaming the wrong people lets the Castellinis off the hook, IMO.

None of this is Nick Krall’s fault. With postseason expansion, there were a few more desperate teams out there and Nick took full advantage. Right now, he’s kept the ship afloat. If only someone could wrest the helm from the captain.

Father. Iowa born, Kentucky raised, NYC finished. I write about baseball. I wonder what Willie Shakespeare would have written had he met Willie Mays. Coastal Elite on the Ohio River.

Virtually everyone has the reds as a non-factor again next year. What are fans to do, go to games, listen on radio, buy products, and keep hoping? When is faith lost forvever?

As Joe Burrow said, there’s not much to do in Cincinnati, so my guess is people will continue to go to Reds game no matter what 🙂

Couldn’t agree more. When is enough enough already. I was totally against trading Drury. Could have signed him relatively cheap for around 5 mil.

Would have been nice, but how do you know that.

Follow the minor league teams, apparently. They should be pretty good

They don’t have enough pitching depth and impact bats to be a contender next year but if a few more of these young players make the team, they will be fun to watch.

Wondering if they go out and get a few potential deadline tradable players for next year during the offseason. 1-year deals that they can flip at the deadline again.

Honestly, I am hoping they let as many younger players play

Next years one yr. deals got to be the likes of Cueto,chapman,tucker and other popular reds.

Do we have an Eric Davis or Pete Alonzo in our farm system we must have by the way they keep getting rid of good players

Fans can wait and see. Projections for next year and beyond are no more than guesses. There will be some good young players on the field next year, playing baseball, and they should be fun to watch.

Richard, I really appreciate this piece and your perspective. I’ve been guilty of lumping Krall with ownership as the ‘villain’ in this scenario and that was likely unfair.

We all want the same thing, for the Reds to win. We want good, competitive baseball. I’m willing to be patient next year and hope to see development of our young guys. And I REALLY hope Krall is able to signal out some core players (possibly India and Stevenson) and sign them early to team friendly extensions.

Agree. So that I don’t lose my sanity I focus on the positive things such as a core of good young arms and good, high character, young hitters such as India and Stephenson. That’s a pretty group of home gown talents

Have to say Krall has changed my opinion of him. What was that address again I’ll be sending my apology for sure. I have admitted he did a decent job trying to fix the bullpen last season, even though I thought it was a little later than they should have waited.

Thank you, Nick Krall, for restoring some faith. Hopefully Bob lets you continue to do a good job.

I’ll stand and admit Krall did an excellent job navigating the trade deadline. And if prospects build the future, then a lot of prospects gives us a better chance. 2023? Probably not. 2024? Maybe, depending on some development.

We’re not buying fully vetted veterans (I vividly recall when that’s all the NYY team seemed to do in the 70’s). Any prospect who makes The Show has 3 years at the minimum (bonus and development costs are already done) and then 1-3 years of arbitration where their performance and the market end up dictating most of what they get. During that 6 years (more like the first 4 of them) is when we can decide to lock in on a player who looks very promising and is willing to stay and play in Cincinnati. I hope we never go the 10-year plus route again. But locking in anyone is ultimately a crap shoot. Stuff happens.

I’ve moved past Krall’s complicity in the Minor trade. He was doing what the Bob-and-Phil show wanted … period. I’m encouraged by what he did in the past week.

I’ll always be a Reds fan, but I’m not local so I’m not sitting in GABP much (if ever). I hate to see the struggles, but I love the points of brilliance like our young SP core. The NL Central will always be a weaker division. We can take advantage of that and the the playoffs are a place where anything can (and does) happen.

Good article, Richard. Keep it up.

Next year. Wait ’till next season!

Actually, the next couple of years could be fun to watch. No, the Reds will likely finish 4th or 5th in the NL Central next year. But at least now, they’re moving. A lot of young talent is going to emerge. Some young prospects will become suspects, and some young guys will be electrifying, and some will take a while. We also could be surprised. The young pitching may improve a lot in 2023, and the team will win with pitching. Weirder things have happened. After 2023, in theory, the team will have more payroll room to sign a guy (or guys) to plug a hole, if necessary (looking at the bullpen, which presently has lots of holes). This young guy Steer they just got may be playing 3rd base for the Reds next year. dela Cruz and McGarry aren’t that far away, either. A couple more young pitchers will emerge (Williamson?). The 1982 team kind of hit bottom (after playing well in 1981, the strike split season), then dissolving that team. By 1985, with the addition of Dave Parker, the team finished 2nd in the NL West (though really, not that close to the division winner). 86,87,88, they finished 2nd each year. 1989 was a collapse due to almost everyone getting hurt. Then 1990, World Series.

I don’t know if there is really a “plan”. But there is a lot more talent to emerge from the Reds’ minor league teams. And some of that may also get traded to get “that guy” that they may need. I don’t believe much of anything the Castellinis say anymore, and I wonder what the other members of the ownership group think? Krall has taken a lot of crap on this here blog, but actually, I think he has followed his instructions from ownership, and also done a decent job with personnel this season, given his restrictions. He, along with the scouting staff, did a a pretty good job of getting talent from the trades they made. 2022 was a big disappointment, of course, but there is good reason to hope that the Reds will be competitive in 2-3 years.

1982 Reds 61-101 1983 Reds 74-88 1984 Reds 70-92 1985 Reds 89-72

That’s the likely rebuild window with 1982 serving as 2022. That points to a potential wild card spot in 2025.

In order to have some relevancy at each Trade Deadline, the Bull will need to sign a few veterans each year to serve as potential trade chips each year. I strongly emphasize relief pitchers to dominate that category. A good bullpen can help grow our SP corp. Sprinkle in a few Brandon Drury types.

I again point out that the competitive window is also around the same time that our beloved SP corp becomes arbitration eligible. That is the danger of the rinse-and-repeat nature of the ever-rebuilding clubs. We need to see some very strong commitment from ownership (hopefully different by then), that they will invest to keep and not trade this next wave of talent, or, as previously-stated, I’ll blow a gasket.

Keep in mind it took that mid-80’s competitive team another 5 years to win the last World Series Championship (1990). It is also important to note that CIN employed a set or rebuilding managers leading up to the ’80’s, then had Pete Rose during the competitive window, and then brought in Lou Piniella to win the ‘ship. I could see that same pattern emerge with Bell serving as the rebuild manager.

While others do not feel Bell players youngsters over veterans (and they are right), I do see Bell making the adjustment. He announced Barrero is going to serve as the SS with Farmer likely moving over to 3B. That’s a tell.

Hopefully, we’ll see a few young position players emerge as stars and that will make the team worth watching during this rebuild. Farewell hype around Votto and to a lesser extent, Cueto, would create some buzz too.

Was sure hoping to see a championship before 2030, but that is a realistic timeline now.

Credit to Nick for obtaining the most amount of talent possible given the situation. But the real credit will come when these kids turn into legitimate major leaguers. That’s gonna take awhile.

+1000. And realigning many of these guys skills into new positions on the fly while trying to move them through the system in a timely fashion before Stephenson, India, and the young pitches age out on cost is no gimme either.

They are going to have to spend money to make this work, perhaps by flipping a number of these players for more established players (who cost more).

I am with Ricard that the likelihood of this ownership being able to organize or step and their baseball people organize such an effort is beyond suspect.

Bob (aka Captain Queeg) Castellini is too focused upon finding out who stole the strawberries from the wardroom to be concerned with building a championship baseball team. Perhaps other owners in the Red’s wardroom will force him to sell the principal ownership share and right the ship?

did you see Boston is letting Jackie Bradley go? An excellent defensive center fielder whose batting average has dropped too nearly .200. He will be dfa’d next week. Do the reds take a chance if they can claim him on waivers?

Absolutely NO We do not need any more DFA guys

You play the young players who have a future not a has been. That is why Barrero is playing SS. You are not playing to win. You are playing games today with an eye towards 2025.

2025 Lineup C Stephenson 1B Cam Collier 2B India 3B Noelvi Marte SS Edwin Arroyo LF Matt McClain CF Jose Barrero RF Elly De La Cruz DH Spencer Steer

SP1 Greene SP2 Lodolo SP3 Ashcraft SP4 Boyle SP5 or BP Chase Petty

Closer Diaz Bullpen TJ Antone BP or #5 SP Connor Phillips BP or #5 SP Brandon Williamson BP or #5 SP Bryce Bonnin BP or #5 SP Andrew Abbott BP or #5 SP Jose Acuna BP or #5 SP Steven Hajjar

Interesting take; Senzel not on the list, which I’d disagree with. I’d say McLain has as good a shot to be the SS on that team as any, and given what we’ve seen with his glove, arm & range I would not rule Barrero out of that role just yet. Nelson & Vellojin will have had time by then to be ready behind the plate, in the event Stephenson moves to 1b (Collier ascending that quick would be great though). DLC in RF could certainly happen, can also see Marte in the OF as well. Hinds, Callihan & Hendrick are 3 others highly rated that may force the team to move them up by then. I definitely see Williamson as a SP, and don’t forget Overton who looked great before he got hurt.

dude this is like fantasy baseball.

Stoudt is pitching great but no mention Barrero is awful and you have him as a starter beyond ridiculous

Too many righthand hitters in lineup.

Collier will be only 21 years old. I doubt he debuts in 2025.

I do not see India staying at 2B.

Arroyo will only be 21 in 2023 also.

Thanks for your insight Willdcat. I am not so high on Williamson. I forgot about Overton. I know Collier will only be 20 but plenty of others if he does not make it until 2026. I am hopeful though. As for Senzel, I think he will not be a Red at that time so I left him off. I have no problem including him in LF and moving McLain to 1B to give Collier another year. The Reds have 5 guys currently playing SS in this group. From what I hear Arroyo is the best of the group defensively so I left him at SS. De La Cruz had to go to RF with his arm. Agree Vellojin will be on the bench by then. I have no faith in Nelson.

I did not even consider the RH/LF situation.

Burt… you do realize Barerro had hamate surgery? Takes a long time to come back from. He can hit, and he is in the long term plan.

Thankfully the Reds know Barrero isn’t part of the long term plan which is why they got so many ss

No, and here’s why:

1. The Reds would owe the remainder of the $11M left on his 2022 salary–this money can be used next year. 2. He’d take playing time away from Nick Senzel who showed improvement in both June and July–we need to know whether Senzel should get more playing time moving forward. 3. He’s simply not good. He’s generated negative WAR both this season and last season. In short, his solid defense doesn’t make up for his poor hitting.

no. if he is dfa, they would only owe the mlb minimum, prorated. but your second and third points are valid. I don’t think they should pick him up either, I just threw it out there for discussion.

If a team claims him, they have to pay the remaining salary. He has to clear waivers and then sign a new FA contract for the new team to get him at the ML minimum.

I vote with BK on having this right. If the guy is awarded on a waiver claim, the contract/ salary comes with him.

I stand corrected BK. No way we consider this dude.

Boston just released Bradley, and mlb rumors stated anyone can sign and pay the prorated league minimum. I still don’t want him.

How long is it going to take to see Senzel is not going to be a big part of the reds future?

Do people think the Reds did well in their trades? Yes.

Does that mean that the Reds will be winning a lot of baseball games in the future? No.

Does it improve their odds to do so? Yes, but by how much?

Prospects are just that. The last rebuild was around prospects Robert Stephenson, Tyler Mahle, Amir Garrett, Brandon Finnegan, Sal Romano, Cody Reed, Luis Castillo, Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, and then a lesser group of prospects.

Is the current group better? It’s not my job to determine that, but even if it is better they aren’t that much better overall. And that group did next to nothing as a whole, with what three of the guys turning out quite well in Castillo, Winker, and Mahle.

It makes me feel a little better that people in the know seem to think the Reds did well in the trades. That doesn’t make me feel good though given that you can go back and look at every top 100 prospect list that has existed and see that more than half of the players on it never even became starting caliber players much less good ones.

I am old. Waiting for the “next” year(s) is not something I want to do. Again.

This class is without a doubt much better than the players you mentioned.

Stephenson – 1st round pick (27 overall) was a top 100 prospect. Mahle – Drafted in round 7. Did not make Fangraphs top 100 prospects in his last year at age 22. Garrett – Drafted in round 22. Never appeared as a top 100 prospect until age 24. Finnegan – Good arm taken with the 17th pick of the draft. Projected as a mid rotation starter per Fangraphs at the time of the trade. Fangraphs: The 2014 1st rounder has already found success in the big leagues as a reliever, but some teams think he could be a mid-rotation starter, drawing comparisons to Billy Wagner and Scott Kazmir. Romano – Never more than a 200 -300 prospect. Cody Reed – 2nd Round pick who never really made it. Castillo – prospect value soared after the Reds traded for him. Senzel – Injuries have slowed this former top 10 prospect. Was a top 10 prospect after his age 23 season. Winker – 75th – 125th prospect after age 22 season.

The only two big time prospects on this list are Stephenson and Senzel.

Arroyo and Collier are top 100 prospects at a time when Senzel was in HS.

Elly Dela Cruz and Noelvi Marte are top 25 prospects at age 20 when Senzel was preparing for his Junior year in College.

Greene is a better prospect than Stephenson ever was. Lodolo about the same as Stephenson.

Barrero, Steer, McLain and Williamson have been top 100 prospects.

Joe Boyle has a ceiling that is greater than any pitcher I have mentioned thus far but also the lowest floor.

International signings have been fantastic the last 2 or 3 years.

This class is much better at the top than any class with the possible exception of the 2008 class. This class of prospects is much deeper than any class.

Mentioning that Amir Garrett was a 22nd rounder and not mentioning he got the 50th highest signing bonus in the entire draft feels like you are ignoring the kind of prospect that he was viewed as to fit your view.

Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed, Luis Castillo, Jesse Winker, Amir Garrett, Tyler Mahle, and Nick Senzel were ALL top 100 prospects at at least one of the major prospect places (MLB, Baseball America, BP, FG). That is 9 guys. And Nick Senzel is still the highest rated prospect among that class and this class.

I didn’t dive deep into trying to compare the two straight up, but you are using a ton of hindsight in your reasoning. My view as the prospect guy – The two are pretty similar and they are way more similar than you seem to want to be giving credit for because the earlier group flopped like a fish on a dry beach.

I’m with you Stock. Way more excited about the return the Reds got from these trades and the depth of the system than what they had during the previous rebuild. I don’t really see it as close either.

Another criticism of “last rebuild” was that aside from the pitchers, the Reds targeted ML-ready talent. We “needed” a SS and brought in Peraza (a top, but falling prospect) who was stretched at SS–didn’t really fit. We also brought in Schebler and Duvall as potential outfielders–both fit best in LF, where top hitting prospect Jesse Winker best fit. Even if you believe the talent was comparable, it seemed from the start that the pieces didn’t fit well together. Although we have a surplus of shortstops, there is defensive versatility with the current group. That will give the front office a lot of options to adjust as prospects shine and falter.

Tom Seaver was taken in the 9th round of the 1965 MLB draft. Nolan Ryan was taken in the 12th round of the 1965 MLB draft.

Where they were drafted is meaningless. Each are HOF pitchers.

Shouldn’t the comparison really be the players traded for not the players drafted? The 2015 trades got Reed, Finnegan, Romano, Perraza, Duvall, Schwarber, and a few others. Finnegan and Reed were both highly regarded. Perraza was at one time but was falling in the rankings and had already been traded multiple times. Castillo wasn’t highly rated, but had just had a great year. Castillo and Duvall probably provided more than we expected. Reed and Finnegan never lived up to the expectations. The rest were probably exactly what should have been expected.

There are probably higher expectations with the returns from this time, headlined by Marte. There are three or four top 100 prospects this time. I don’t remember that many being top 100 in 2015. So I would say this time has a greater expectation.

I have to stand by my statement and disagree with you Doug. Many problems with your assumptions. This class is so much better. Sure 8 of these players were top 100 prospects by at least 1 rating service at YE at some point in their career. But for most it was just that a one and done.

Mahle didn’t even make your top 10 Reds prospects until his breakout year in 2017. 2017 he was rated 50-100 by several publications.

Castillo in his only year as a Red prospect was rated in the top 100 by one publication for 2016 YE. You had him rated as the Reds 9th best prospect at that time. I have no doubt he made top 100 in publications that had a midseason 2017 rating. By 2017 YE he was no longer a prospect.

Amir Garrett was also a one and done player. Top 100 but again not top 50.

Cody Reed was a one and done with the Reds. I can’t remember if he was ever rated top 100 as a Royal

Finnegan was not even a prospect when he came to Cincinnati. So he should not have even been brought up in this discussion.

Senzel and Stephenson were the only players on this list who were top 50 multiple times. They may have been the only ones who were top 50 prospects period.

The times these players made the top 100 is spread out. Garrett and Reed made it before Senzel was signed.

Now lets look at the current group of prospects. I am including Greene, Lodolo and Barrero since they were prospects at the beginning of the year.

Players who have made a top 50 at some point: Greene, Lodolo, Barrero, De La Cruz, Marte, Collier (vs. 2 for the preceding group)

Players who are young and probably will be top 50 players at some point in the future: Arroyo, Cabrera, Acosta and probably others but this is being conservative. (total 9 vs. 2) (I feel Joe Boyle will be on this list too but will ignore him because my opinion on him is so different than anyone else).

Players who have made top 100 not listed above (and possibly top 50 somewhere): Arroyo, Williamson, Steer, McLain

Players who will probably be top 100 players in the future: Jay Allen, Connor Phillips, Andrew Abbott, Stoudt, Hajjar

Players too young but some will for sure make the top 100 if not top 50: Balcazar, Jorge, Sal Stewart, Hector Rodriguez, Petty, Carlos Sanchez, Almonte, Valdez, Pineda and Valencia

The prior group and two or three players make the top 100 multiple times. Stephenson, Senzel and possibly Winker. This group will have at least 10 and possibly as many as 20.

De La Cruz and Marte entered the top 10 prospects at a point in time where Senzel still had one more year of college ball. Marte and De La Cruz are better prospects than Senzel. Senzel did not become a top 10 prospect until he was 23. Marte and De La Cruz will not be prospects at the age of 23.

Again the comparison is not even close. Assuming they are prospects come 2023 YE, Marte, De La Cruz and Collier may be the top three prospects come 2023 YE prospect rankings.

Mike Trout was once a prospect. Aaron Judge was once a prospect Jacob Degrom was once a prospect Max Scherzer was once a prospect Juan Soto was once a prospect need I go on?

We may end up with a lot of nothing in 5 years from these acquired prospects, or we may end up with 3 or 4 multi-year all-stars.

If you have no prospects, you have almost no future. I’d rather gain the prospects and wait and see than simply stumble along below .500. Castillo helped the Reds to become a .400 winning team. Mahle, the same. Drury, the same. It’s not like we just traded away a World Series appearance.

At least right now, there is far more hope for the coming two or three years than there was two weeks ago. None of us trust ownership to go all-in or really ramp up payroll when prospects arrive and we get young, hunger and very competitive, but at least there is hope.

There have been so many years we’ve been waiting for our one big prospect to come up and take the Reds to the promise land. Bruce, Homer, Mesoraco, Senzel, India, Stephenson, etc. Some have panned out, some have eventually panned out, and some haven’t. But it always feel like we’re pinning our hopes on one or two guys. Barrero was our great hope recently. Now we have a glut of real talent in the minors and have hope beyond a couple players to become stars. The future looks much brighter than it has in a while (through the prospect lens).

Jesus take the wheel, from Bob.

Padres are happy: https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1555011018316779521

Awesome Drury! So dumb not to offer him a deal in the first place.

Snakes bite. Just remember, young hot prospects with meddling non-baseball savvy owners become fodder for the LA/NYY’s of the league. Don’t become too attached, less you want to be bitten.

We can only hope. If they are wanted by LA/NYY, then that means they’re playing well. Lets hope we have 5 or 6 coveted young players hitting 2nd year arbitration and escalating salaries in 6 or 7 years. That means we have a very nice roster of players if so. Trying to see the bright side.

Good to have a frame in the strategy for Reds in the next years… however, no one can have only focus in the future without looking the present… By the way, do the Reds have announced who’s going to pitch tomorrow vs the brewers?

Dugger (Fri), Lodolo (Sat), and Green (Sun) per the official Red’s website.

Time will tell the story. Alot can happen. Injures, trades, or just not making it to the major leagues.

As we have seen just because a player can perform well at the minor league level doesn’t mean they will make it in the majors.

That is the glass-half-empty version…and valid. The glass-half-full is more like we could very well have 3 or 4 multi-year all-stars in 6 years, all pre-arb or 1st time arb (very affordable), and maybe competing for NL Central title. That too is valid, if overly optimistic.

We certainly have better percent chance of multiple all-stars adding a slew of upper tier prospects in past week, than we did just two weeks ago. Agreed?

I had thought to never post again, as I am really, reallly, Realllllly angered, downcast, sullen, bitter, et al with Bob Castellini. Hearing what Richard said about Doug’s comments re: Castellini lying to us…that sums it up. He has failed Miserably at building a perennial contender. St Louis can do it, Milwaukee can do it, Tampa has done it! Why not us? I am convinced as never before, that Bob never really intended that, as he promised upon taking the reins of Cincinnati’s pride and joy, now seceded to the Bengals the Bearcats, and maybe even a soccer team!

What a revolting development! Especially when so many have concluded the Reds were not that far away from contending, including not only a duo of top tier players at the most crucial position…SP! With a trio of more of the same in the guise of Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo!!! Castillo was bad enough, but when I heard Tyler Mahle also gone!?! I couldn’t help thinking of the SS Titanic and the grief inherent in their plaintive announcement to their passengers and crew alike…Abandon ship, abandon ship! Along with the heart wrenching purported message sent to all within range…ALL HOPE IS LOST!

It is a very dark period in the history of Reds baseball. Trade not only your 2 best SP for PROSPECTS…but get rid of the guy who is having the best season of any of your current 26 man rostered players for another 18 year old PROSPECT? What indeed is this fantabulous new model the team is following, or is it just another ‘wild hair’ from Bob? It remains to be seen, but I for one, am NOT expecting great things from this ‘plan’. Any crack in our window of the future has just been slammed for the foreseeable future, not withstanding the glorious and exciting PROSPECTS we have received in return for our best!!!

Really nice article Richard! Thanks for putting things into the appropriate perspective.

The Reds are finally following a coherent rebuild plan. They were not on a path to contention with the current roster, and were unlikely to resign Castillo and Mahle. The fact that the Reds traded them for real talent is a positive change. Let’s hope that they pan out, while remembering that hope is the last thing that came out of Pandora’s box.

The Drury trade is fine. Yes, he is raking, but one year deal, cheap, no way he didn’t get a great offer next year and gone. Why hold him? Is he going to help us lose only 92 games instead of 95? Probably. Does that matter? Absolutely not.

Holding on to Drury would have painted a worse picture of ownership than trading him. Holding him might have meant, “well, this should keep the fans happy” line of thinking, rather than lets maximize the potential of the future years now.

As for Castillo, that is hard pill to swallow, but we all know, given Castellini and history of Reds, there was NO WAY they would have offered enough money to keep him. His value next year would have been much less (less control remaining). It was a wise time to trade him (rare to say that with Reds trades past 15 years). He also started each year stinking up the place in April and May. If you have too many slow starters, you’re already out of contention before June 1st at 15 games back.

Mahle wasn’t that good. Solid, yes, but his home ERA was putrid. Extending him would have meant overpay for an SP3/SP4 type. I’d rather extend Lodolo or Greene if they continue to improve than keep Mahle at their (possible) expense.

There is a dark side to this, sure, we are obviously much worse team now (a bad, bad losing team, instead of just a bad losing team). There is also a bright side that didnt’ exist a week ago. I am focused on that (and happy they’re finally going all-in on a rebuild for once).

Everybody seems to really like “prospects” instead of proven players. They forget all the other teams have “prospects” in addition to their proven players they keep.

No, I am in the boat of wanting to keep good talent and signing it to 3-to-5-year deals.

I’m sick of rebuilding. Prospects don’t mean anything but replacement players if a major league talent gets injured.

What are we going to do? Stop watching? Even though I am following the Blue Jays also this year. I can’t keep away from the Reds. Yes, I am part of the problem and it’s an addiction we learned growing up with this team.

The trouble is, we don’t have that many proven “good” players. The Reds (and the owners assigned payroll) are not the team that can go and buy up already provent players.

If you’re realistic, then prospects make much more sense. If you’re hoping we’re out-spending the Yankees in 5 years, then yeah, trading all the prospects for proven players makes sense, if completely unrealistic.

If we had proven good players, we’d be a contender, but we’re not close and we weren’t even a real contender when we did make the playoffs. The Braves completely embarrassed us. Out hitters couldn’t touch the Braves pitching, so apparently they feasted off of crappy pitchers and are not playoff quality hitters. Probably better some of them are gone.

For me, anything enthusiasm about the deft dealings by Krall is tempered by the PTSD from watching what should be core pieces shipped off for prospects and the cycle repeats ad nauseum. Acquiring the pieces is great, but the true test of whether this cycle of losing for years just to open a two year competitive window will be whether ownership extends these core pieces. Baseball is big business, the Reds have quadrupled in value under this ownership group—they stand to profit beyond their wildest dreams when they decide to sell, so operating at a ‘loss’ should be the least of their concerns. Despite outliers like Tampa Bay, winning costs money. To have any real faith the cycle has been broken, I’m gonna need to see substantial investments in our core players. Anything less than that is business as usual.

Looking at the data provided by Forbes, the Brewers and Cardinals are not better than us because their owners are losing money. They are better because they have a strategy and their owners let them follow the strategy.

The notion that a business can operate at a loss as a long-term strategy is false. Being in a small market makes life harder, but not impossible. The problem isn’t that ownership doesn’t want to win and hasn’t invested, it’s that they have required at least 3 GMs to do so in a manner that was predictably unsuccessful.

Operating at a loss and losing money are not the same. Again, the franchise value has quadrupled. They will make obscene amounts of money when they sell. What the fans are demanding is they make a little less profit in exchange for fielding a competitive team every year. It’s demonstrably false that ownership has consistently invested relative to the valuation of the franchise.

IMO The Reds had no clue of a plan last November when they gave away Barnhardt and Miley. They were short sighted and thought the payroll off the books without return was the way to go. They could have spent a little, taken their time and got more in return than what they “saved” by those two deals. They learned something from the process (and the fans telling them how they messed up) and then got something in return for Gray, Winker/Suarez as they went thru the second round of salary purge. Then based on the backlash of the fan base that assumed we would contend in 2022 made some stupid signings in Minor and Pham. Then after the Castollini PR nightmare, they had to really come together and develop a plan that the fans would understand/buy. I believe that Krall did an excellent job of navigating the trade deadline and getting viable prospects that could one day make the Reds contenders again. I loved that they got athletes in the deals and not pigeon holed talent. Now time will tell if they can stick to the plan and develop (or not hinder the development) of the players they obtained. The next step in building a sustainable model is to stagger their ascension to MLB so that they don’t have too many hitting the expensive arbitration years or free agency at the same time. Follow the Cardinals lead and always have someone ready to step in as someone departs.

TBH, “when they gave away” Miley and Barnhart looks more and more like an excellent decision. Both from the budget side, and they move up younger talent aspect.

I’m much more interested in the Minor and Strickland decisions. Clearly they felt Minor replaced Miley, and once again they failed to add veteran bullpen talent, but consider all the other replacement options (looking at Cueto here, haven’t looked at RP availability as much).

I understand the Pham/Drury/Solano signings, and they have a much better track record adding that sort of productive talent on the offensive side.

Given the wild-card structure, competing in 2023 should not be out of the question unless ownership says so by rigidly sticking to a set budget.

Serious contention is years away, but MLB is closer to the NHL structure now, and one or two moves gets you looking at the bottom playoff spot.

I would disagree with your assessment of the Barnhart giveaway. The Reds could sorely use an MLB catcher at the moment.

While there’s nothing wrong with being an optimist I’m a realist Except Diaz the entire bp need to be rebuilt Holes at 1b,ss (unless Farmer is brought back)3b and2 or 3 holes in the outfield,not sure about Senzel

And you make the excellent point about the “sustainable model” – that is Krall’s true challenge. DW and the Boddy crew started that process, and it should be a very minor budget concern, (and actually a budget priority) but changing a culture can be extremely difficult even if ownership is not intentionally meddling with it.

Your right about the Cardinals. They founded the first MLB farm system with GM Branch Rickey. It’s a big reason St. Louis is rarely out of the hunt.

I think the Reds were intending to tank until the new CBA had a draft lottery included in it. Then they went and signed Minor and Pham in a halfhearted attempt to fool the fans into still attending games.

I think everyone is underestimating how good this team is going to be over the next 4-7 years. This is the starting rotation we’re looking at for next year:

Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo Graham Ashcraft Justin Dunn Brandon Williamson

1B – Noelvi Marte (I think Marte ends up here because of the glut of infield talent) 2B – Jonathan India 3B – Elly De La Cruz SS – Matt McLain OF – Jose Berrero (as much as we want him to be SS – the talent behind him is better and their bats are better) OF – Spencer Steer (like Marte, could end up in the OF) OF – ? C – Tyler Stephenson

Closer: Alexis Diaz Setup: Tejay Antone

To have this many young tremendously talented players right at the door – all coming in at/around the same time. Best young rotation in baseball – and some of the best young positional talent in baseball as well.

Starting next year, we’re going to have such a fun team, and it only gets better each year after that. Just gotta rid ourselves of dead weight like Moose tracks.

Great article Richard. Jim Bowden in a deadline grade summary for every team have the Reds an A

He stated this is the first time in the Castellini ownership tenure the GM was given the independence and authority to make the best baseball moves for the team.

If that’s the case that they let the Bull do what he felt was right, then I’m even more excited. I like where Krall is taking the team, and if Bob isn’t tinkering with the decisions, the future may indeed be bright.

Ryan Ludwick had .275 BA with 26 HR and 80 RBI as starting LF in 2012.

Jocketty made enough good moves for Reds to be successful in 2010, 2012, and 2013.

They have not been very good since then.

Yes but Jocketty also made critical, devastating errors in judgement in ’14 and ’15, leading to a very long rebuild that was not necessary.

“I think a couple of tweaks here and there and I think we’ll be very competitive next year.” – Walt Jocketty in 2015 before a 64 win season where he held onto Cueto, Leake, and Frazier to the point where they were rentals in trades and we got little value back. This resulted in many losing seasons and top five picks in the draft in order to rebuild the farm.

We should finally celebrate a Reds front office that recognizes we are NOT “a couple tweaks here and there” from being competitive, and instead traded assets at peak value and extracted a wealth of value back, minimizing the rebuild period.

The Reds biggest problem after 2013 was hiring Bryan Price as manager.

Jocketty helped build the 1988-89-90 Oakland Athletics as head of their minor league system in mid 1980s.

He won six NL division titles, two NL pennants, and one WS championship at St Louis Cardinals.

He won two NL division titles and one Wild Card spot with the Reds.

The 2012 team is arguably the best Reds team of the past 25 years.

Jocketty wasn’t responsible for most of the 2012 team. And he traded from a deep farm to get the rest. He was responsible for the terrible rebuild.

This is off base, IMO. In retrospect, Jocketty might have been the wrong guy for the job because his skill set (to me) was making moves, trading, recognizing and signing talent.

When he got to the Reds, the farm had just graduation 4 very important players: Bailey, Votto, Bruce and Cueto. He had a few bullets left and he used them to get Latos, which IMO was a win for the organization at the time. A couple of players were blocked. Volquez was mostly done (he had a league worst 5.13 ERA in 2013. Latos largely delivered in those 2 years the window wide open. In retrospect, they could have kept Grandel, but Mesaraco was a fine player and no GM could have known what was going to happen to him. I don’t think any of those players became mainstays for the Padres.

Ownership then spent $300M on two players. I think they turned off the $$ spigot after that, which is why WJ kept bringing in players on the cheap, players he knew, hoping they still had something in the tank. isn’t that what you do when there’s no money?

I also believe ownership wanted to keep certain players thru the All Star game at least. It’s hard to believe any of that was Jocketty’s decision. Should the Reds have signed Cueto over Bailey? Sure. But Bailey was willing to sign. Cueto and his agent wanted to test the market and see how much they could get. WJ was never going to get the okay to spend what the Cubs gave to Jon Lester, who set the benchmark with $155M and a $30M bonus.

Jocketty’s biggest failing? He was an old school guy. The Reds needed to move with the analytic crowd because that’s were the game was going. Can you still win doing it this way? Well, Dave Drombowski did it with the Red Sox in 2018, but he decimated all the work Ben Cherington did building the farm in the process.

That’s simply not accurate. Jocketty traded for Scott Rolen and Mat Latos (two keys to 2012 success). He brought in Ryan Ludwick as FA. He drafted Mike Leake. He signed Aroldis Chapman. He traded for Sean Marshall, Jonathan Broxton, and Alfredo Simon (all key parts of bullpen).

As I said, not accurate at all.

Great article Richard … excellent, well supported thesis! You’re a gifted writer and always a “must read”. Thanks for contributing here.

Well they go nowhere in 2023. They then sign Ian Happ in the offseason and Stephenson, India, Happ, the young pitchers, and a couple of the 13 shortstops lead us to the last wildcard. Or atleast we’re not eliminated in May like this year

I wish Krall had done more at the deadline, like dump Moustakas on a greater fool – guess he couldn’t find one. Solano for something would have been nice. And several other things. But ultimately, if the Castellanis stay out of it, and if Krall kicks Bell’s rear end and he sticks to the “let’s see the young guys” then losing 100+ games this year will be tolerable. But please, no Moran, Strickland, and the like. Lose with the future not the past.

Unfortunately I think keeping Moustakas was best move. He is negative value and trading him would have cost us a piece of the future. They just have to eat the cost and limit his playing time so it doesn’t set back a prospect or rookie that NEEDS the experience.

Bob might have to stomach releasing him and eating the final money owed. That might improve the team, rather than keeping him. Depends on what his clubhouse presence brings. Maybe he is a solid leader or clubhouse glue, who knows, if so, that does hold some value.

I loved the trades. Very nice work by the Reds and Krall. I agree, Reds need to stick to a plan. I sure hope they start to develop the prospects and keep them. Do not trade your best prospects to get proven major leagues and do not sign overpriced free agents who don’t move the needle while at tbe same time not paying for the later arbitration years of their best players they develop. I’m fine with trading the players they did, the Reds weren’t going to win this year and not next year. The issue was the bad contracts of Shogo and Moose, and Votto at this age. Hard to win with half your payroll providing little winning value. I’m glad the Reds didn’t re-sign Castellanos because that starts this cycle over again. Let’s go into 2024 and 2025 with extreme payroll flexibility to build a winner and re-sign our best developed prospects, .

Agree with many others, need to STICK to a plan and only tweak it as years advance. I too wish we’d find an operation M.O. that mirrored Tampa Bay or Milwaukee or even the slightly bigger market Cardinals. Sigh.

Bell said on the Reds sight that Barrero was here meaning last year but it wasn’t a big enough sample of his play.The truth was I chose not to play him much but now I have been told to play him.No doubt Krall has set the direction for Bell.Up to now I am sure he was told he must play certain people and who else played was up to him.As LDS said losing is tolerable but please lose with the future and not the past.Reds players that are on one year deals should not even see the field unless their is nobody else to play.

This years reds and last years reds were completely different teams and circumstances. Bell will play Barrero because the season is over and he knows he could be part of the future. The idea that Bell prefers to play vets is a false narrative that many try to discredit him with. This team is full of young players Bell plays.

Should have said young position players.Reds had 3 rookie starting pitchers because no more Sonny and no more Miley.They planned to go with 2 rookies but when Minor went down they ended up with 3 that are starting now but they also used other rookies to start as well because there was nobody else.The pen had vets but most went down and some are back now but he used young pitchers cause he ran out of vets.You can bet with Detwiller and now Cessa and of course Strickland he will use them and a lot.The season was over a long time ago and Shrock,Lopez,Fairchild and Friedl just to name a few came up and watched Bell run out Pham and Naquin and Moose and Almora and Reynolds.Now he still has some of these players but he has been told to play Barrero and Aquino at short and right but he would never do it unless Krall told him to.I still don’t believe it will happen so I expect Farmer will play some at short and Reynolds in right

So all youre saying is we watched Bell play better players all year? Are you actually serious? His job is to win games, if any of those young players had even kind of earned playing time they’d have played. Saying he should play fringy AAAA types instead of average or better MLers is actually kind of crazy if your argument is Bell isnt a good manager.

@2020ball, that’s exactly what they are saying. Boy veterans would love to play for this group. A guy like Drury would sit to make room for a guy who is hitting 200 in AAA.

Sight should have been site of course.

I’ve stood behind Krall’s trades from the beginning, even when people wanted to argue with me about the moves he made last year/offseason. I’ve thought they were good moves toward a future window of competitiveness all along. Heck, I’ve even defended the Minor trade (and still do). The reality is, the Reds needed a starting pitcher to eat innings and they needed him to be on a one year deal. They could have basically kept Miley, or went with someone else. Minor and Miley basically cost the same. So they traded a garbage reliever with a terrible attitude for Minor and passed on Miley. The reasoning was solid. Miley was over the hill and management felt he was done (and they weren’t wrong). So they spend that same money on Minor with very little risk. If he has a great year, fantastic. If he’s terrible (and he basically has been), so what? You had that money set aside for a 1 year rental starting pitcher anyway. And with no long term liability, they took a flier on him. He hasn’t worked out. But the Reds are no worse off for it since he won’t be around next year.

Your logic is sound as is your argument regarding Miley and Minor. Miley has pitched very little for the Cubs this year, so this turned out to be a smart move (to dump him). And no, I doubt anyone wanted to give you anything for him in a trade; every team has a “book” or file on every player, and people looked at Miley and his record and his age and said…..no thanks. The Cubs in 2022 are pretty much in the same boat as the Reds; trying to rebuild and shopping the waiver wire. The Cubs probably looked at Miley as the Reds looked at Minor; the difference was the Reds shipped out Garrett for Minor. Minor may yet finish ok this year. He has actually pitched “ok” the last two times out. But losing stinks and getting Minor, exchanging him for a known “popular” pitcher tweaked a lot of people. Minor has pitched (some) and mostly been lousy. There are NOW plenty of parts in the Minor Leagues for the Reds really not having to shop the waiver wire for roster spots next year. May be shopping for bullpen parts, though, next winter and spring. And Moustakas should be DFA’d this winter, and swallow the last year of his contract. And I think that the Reds should politely talk to Joey Votto and his agent about him retiring, and working out a schedule to pay off what they still owe on his contract.

With this article, Richard, you really hit it. Krall has done a great job in getting the Reds leading the pack in the acquisition of valuable prospects. But as prospects time will tell; nothing is guaranteed but at least the Red’s have some positive direction. As a very long-term Reds fan, like many, I’ve been in a state of shock with the way things have turned out this season after being competitive last year until September. Then the knockout blow came from Phil on Opening Day followed by the unbelievable losing streak. I hope positive change in ownership can come this offseason. But for now, the Red’s young pitching and bevy of prospects are something to follow.

Bradley & Gregorius were both released today. Let’s hope Krall sticks to his guns and don’t go dumpster diving. Nothing to be gained.

There were a lot of people on this site lobbying hard for Gregorius. Not signing him was another good move by Krall, and one for which he took a lot of heat.

Isn’t that the truth.

As was not trying to resign Castellanos. Krall has been a lot better than people give him credit for. Williams left him in a bad spot with all those bad contracts.

Now, the Reds will have plenty of money to spend on free agents or buy out arb years should the need arrive.

Here, here. I remember all the posts suggesting we sign him.

The Reds has a competitive team last season. If they were interested in building a winner their job was so much easier in August 2021 than it is today. They had the finest starting pitching in my lifetime.

It’s a false dichotomy to say it was a choice of the 2022 rebuild and the 2015 rebuild. There didn’t have to be a rebuild at all.

But by all means hooray for Nick Krall for getting a couple of top prospects this week. He only had to give up two of the best pitchers in baseball to accomplish it.

If you really don’t know where the Reds go from here let me enlightening you. They will try to sell you on this great future and then in a couple of years, when India and Stephenson gets too expensive, the Reds will ship them for a couple can’t miss prospects. Hunter Greene will be wearing Dodger blue by 2025.

If you really don’t know where the Reds go from here, you clearly haven’t been paying attention.

+500. Only if the person(s) in the owner’s suite change will this sad story change.

Agree on owner change, disagree on not committing full money to the team last year, it’s already shown to be a wise move. Nearly all the players that had us contending are playing poorly this year and highly overpaid now. They could and some will right the ship, but we’d likely be a losing team WITH all those players lost in off-season, and with a VERY bleak future outlook.

So there didn’t have to be a rebuild huh? I suppose you’d have them keep Winker, Suarez, Barnhart, Miley, Gray, Castillo, and Mahle, and also re-sign Castellanos, all from a 2021 team that wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs then……and surely wouldn’t have made the playoffs this year because if you noticed, the best pitcher from ’21 (Miley) has been hurt and the best offensive stars from last year, Winker and Castellanos, have sorely regressed.

The ’21 luke warm team wouldn’t have even been that this year. So add all the payroll back, subtract 3 or 4 top 100 prospects you obtained in the process of trading them, plus several other really good prospects that have the potential for such.

Sounds like a recipe for disaster……..

Bullpen was a disaster in 2021. People seem to forget. Reds made playoffs in 2020 and came up short in 2021. Had a winning record as well in 2021. Also Cardinals went on a unbelievable winning streak as well.

You had a core group coming back and all that was needed was bullpen help. So no 2021 wasn’t a disaster

-500. Absolutely disagree. The Reds as constructed last year were competing for a wild card spot. But were a VERY long way from actually being competitive. They are MUCH closer today than they were then. If you think of being competitive as struggling for a .500 record and maybe a wild card spot, then sure, they were competitive. But if you think of competitive as being close to contending for a world series, no way, They weren’t even close. And they couldn’t get from August 2021 to a world series contender without a complete teardown. The roster as constructed and the contracts in place prevented it. The only way from August 2021 to a world series was a direct path to where they are now. And today they are farther down that road than they were then.

Yup, that team wasn’t going anywhere near a World Series. They were lucky to even make the playoffs in 2020. All you have to do is compare the Reds roster to the Astro’s roster to see how big the talent gap was.

Cueto, Latos, Leake, Bailey, Arroyo were better than Castillo, Gray, Miley, Mahle, Gutierrez,

And not by a little, but by quite a bit.

To win a division, and then reach the World Series, you need several 4-5 WAR players. A position player or two, and a pitcher or two (these are called “aces”. Then you need the rest of the lineup to be at least 2-3 WAR players, and the balance of the rotation to be above 1 WAR, at least. Every team usually has a dinger in there somewhere who is just a replacement level player; usually a catcher or SS. The 1970 Reds (the Big Red Machine) had a couple players (rookie Concepcion and Tommy Helms) who were probably replacement level players that year, although they were both very good defensively. The 2021 team COULD have reached the playoffs as maybe a Wild Card team (and then, really, anything could happen), if ownership had recognized the weakness of the bullpen and spent money to fix it. But that’s water under the bridge, now. Castellanos had a career year in 2021, and in a stadium not much different than GABP, he is having kind of a lousy year in 2022. Joey Votto is now truly declining as a player. Still stuck with Moustakas and his contract. Miley has pitched hardly at all in 2022. So, if the Reds had kept the band together for 2022, and maybe beefed up the Bullpen, they still would likely NOT have been a competitive team, and in decline.

Well, had they gone all in last year, we might now be stuck with Bauer (that would be beyond catastrophic for the teams future), Miley, Winker and Suarez. None of them are playing well (or at all). Seattle is doing well, but with just replacement level play of Suarez and Winker.

It sounds nice to say they could have just added to last years team, but given the results of some of the players, we’d still be out of contention and the gutting of the team would have started this coming off-season with more salary dumps than wise trades.

Hindsight is 20/10 on this question for sure.

I agree with some of what you are saying but Suarez is not a replacement level player. This year is at 2.7 WAR and a 121 OPS+. He was better in 18/19, however that is definitely not replacement level. Winker has been disappointing, Suarez is still good despite the high strike out numbers. I know everyone here hates him for some reason and will keep repeating his strike out totals, but he is still a valuable player

Forgot about the most future-killing player of all…Castellanos. Imagine that contract and him playing like he is now? We’d be writing off the next 5 years of Reds baseball and screaming at the GM and owner for making such dumb moves.

– 501 if I have to give a number (Price is Right move to slightly out do Luke J ;^)

try to have a little optimism. The trades were necessary for the future health of the franchise. The $$$ paid to Votto, Moose, Minor, and Akiyama hurt the team this year and made it a non contender. If Hunter is as good as I think he will be, he will be able to command 40 million per season. This would make him Dodger bait by maybe 2026-2027. I see India as a good player and not a star. If he is no longer a starting player for the Reds in a few years, I believe it will be because he was outperformed. Some people are complaining about his defense this year so it’s a chance he will be the one to move to maybe LF.

I have said throughout this year that Nick Kroll is not the issue. He is doing as directed by ownership to keep his job. This team will flounder for two years and by the time we get decent again we will be selling off talent. Thank goodness for Joe Burrow and Katie Blackburn or our Bengals would in the same mode. I have a feeling all will be well with the Bengals because Cincinnati will support a winner, as most markets will. The Bengals have the same fans for the most part as the Reds and they have sold out their season. SELL THE TEAM BOB!!!! Take the money and invest in something else.

Most so called experts seem to think Krall and Reds FO had an a excellent trade deadline… Time will tell. We obviously were not going to extend Castillo and was probably the right move to not extend Mahle but not finding away to extend Drury will prove to be a mistake. We let a huge amount of production slip away. He could’ve been extended for a reasonable amount. Continuing to waste at bats with Moose is unacceptable. If they are going to DFA him this fall why not do it now. No way he gets any playing time next year.

I wanted to keep Drury, too, but we don’t know what it would have taken to extend him. He’s having a good enough year that he (and his agent) may feel this is his best chance to test FA.

Drury is a journeyman who was having the best season of his career at 29 years old. He had little value to the team going forward, and is likely to regress to the 5th infielder he has been throughout his career.

Focus on 2024. Recent prospects will be worked into the lineup plus highly doubtful Reds pick up Votto’s option year & the absurb Moose contract is off the books. Lots of $$$ to play with.

About everything that I would have said has been said. This rebuild wasn’t necessary. If it had been necessary, the money to subsequently sign Minor and Pham would not have been available. That money pays Winker and Suarez this year. And they probably could have scarfed up money for a decent reliever or 2 in the process.

By the accounts of credible people who know more about such things than I do, Krall has done a good to outstanding job of assembling a large pool of quality talent.

However, I am concerned that so much of the talent is still south of AA and currently centered in one position. Most of these guys, if the scouts are correct, have the stuff to change positions; but, someone has to orchestrate the transitions to create a quality whole result. Little if anything in the recent history of the Reds organization suggests skills are present to organize and execute a coherent plan to accomplish this in the timely fashion required.

So, sadly, I expect the same old, same old, with updated window dressings.

1 – as for the bullpen, for the past 10 years they’ve proven they don’t know how to fix that. 2012 was the last time the were sound there. 2013 looked OK on paper, but that’s when the collapse began. Chapman and Iglesias just showed how useless a great closer is if there’s not much left worth saving.

2 – I’ll defer to Doug (the expert on this) but I lean toward this group of prospects as both better and deeper than any group within memory. Deeper than the Bruce/Votto class, more higher ranked prospects than most of the rest. That said, I still think the DW/Boddy changes to the organization remain and will make development progress better for this group.

Briefly, I think Krall is doing well on the second item – adding prospect talent to a system which can use it properly, but still has not shown anything to fix the first item.

Winker and Suarez are not good right now, we’d be at basically the same record with them. Barnhart, Miley…not good. Castellanos…awful (in relation to the $$$ contract). Bauer is a train wreck.

Keeping the team intact would have resulted in much the same record with a record payroll and a bleak outlook. Crisis averted.

Saurez’s current OPS+ is 121 for the 2022 season, He is at 2.7 bWAR for 2022 with 50 games to go. That’s “not good”?

Winker has also finally gotten over the transition blues and has his OPS+ up to 103, better than league average.

The two were both key players in the M’s recent big winning streak of 15 games or whatever it was exactly.

Castellanos has also suffered in his new environment: but, after his two seasons in Cincy who’s to say he wouldn’t have picked up right where he left off in 2021?

Bauer wasn’t on the 2021 Reds. He was with the Dodgers until his off the field issues caught up with him.

And we do agree that Miley and Barnhart were addition by subtraction. Sadly so was Gray. The money from these 3 departures, in the end, paid for Pham and Minor and went into the owners’ coffers instead of going toward Suarez, Winker, and Castellanos (who should have been budgeted for anyway since his option was a 1 way player option) plus a reliever.

I stand corrected on Bauer. Suarez numbers dont look that good, but maybe its just a down year for AL hitters and thus a better looking OPS.

My main point being, we would NOT be contenders in any fashion this year if we had opened the payroll and kept all those we had. We just wouldn’t. We’d be better than current team, sure, but how much?

I really wan to flush out all the high K hitters. That might work for some higher payroll teams that can have enough bombers with 180+ k’s to win, but not for the Reds. Suarez is one of those. I did like Winker and Castellanos for that reason, but both were subpar defensively.

I’d rather shoot for the moon on getting several quality hitters (even if lower powered) with some speed and above average defensively.

Pitching, we need pitchers with better off-speed stuff. Hoping that is slowly changing too.

I hope when we do sign an FA or two (optimistic) that its a hitter or two thats shown the ability to put the ball in play frequently, mainly less-than-average K rate and solid BA/OBP. For pitchers, I’d want to focus on those that are very efficient with their pitches. Find the pitcher that can go 6 or 7 and occasionally 8+ innings (can’t believe the bar has sunk this low now), without throwing 110+ pitches.

When KC caught lightning in a bottle, they had low K lineup (relative to the rest of the league). When the 1990 Reds won it, they had a relatively low K team. The smaller/mid market teams tend to win it all when they keep the high K hitters to just one or two (and hopefully they’re great fielders or the lone 40 HR guy). Sabo lead 1990 Reds with 27 HRs I think.

It would seem picking up Dinelson Lamet could make sense. After trading two starters the Reds can give him some innings and who knows maybe catch lightening in a bottle. If not the Reds are not out that much. Any thoughts?

Lamet is making just under $5m this year and has 1 year of team control remaining which will likely be at the same price or slightly higher. Cot’s Contracts website says the cost for him for the rest of this year is around $1m. That seems pretty steep given he hasn’t really done much since 2020.

Appreciate the contract info. Not my money so the fan in me says roll the dice and buy a 6 million dollar lotto ticket for the next year and a half. They certainly saved that with the trades just made. How much worse can he be than Mike Minor and there is some potential upside.

Brewers also DFAed catcher Pedro Severino. He appeals more to me than Dinelson. The numbers look like 2 months of him would cost just over $600K, and he is also under team control for 2023. With or without Garcia back soon, he makes sense now and as the possible backup in 2023.

I’m in, sign them both…but then again not my money.

We all love Drury and he had a career year and obviously loves GABP but he is 2 months from FA. He was not going to sign an extension weeks away from being free to sign with 29 other teams and cash in on a life changing contract open to the highest bidder of 30 teams.

Chris Taylor got 4/60 last year as a 30 year old multifaceted player. Drury stats are better. Anthony Rizzo at 32 and in decline got 3/45. Avisail Garcia a big bat on the market in 2021 got 4/53.

Drury wasnt signing an extension for 2 years and 15 million and a home team discount. He’s looking for the big bucks and at age 30 with OPS .864 and 20+ homers and BWAR 2.2 with still 2+months to go, he will cash in big come the off-season.

Baseball execs tend to have a perfect memory of player shortcomings and failures and an incredibly short memory of player successes. Unless the Padres get in the playoffs and make a run with Drury front and center, he will pay a price for the years he fell off the performance wagon.

As I said somewhere here, he might end up at two years guaranteed with a total value of >$15m but <$20m but if so there will also be a sweet mutual bonus on a 3rd year that will pay at least another $1-2m against a $12-15m single year salary for the 3rd year. So I'll say a minimum of 2 years and $22m guaranteed (counting any buyout).

Drury just hit another laser that would’ve been over the fence but Rockies LFer made a great catch. I think he would’ve taken $20 mil for 3 years, but who knows? Old School brought up Chris Taylor’s big contract, but he had 3 years track record.

This is the thing with trades, especially involving prospects, especially involving these prospects. . .

We may not hear from any of these prospects for 2-3 years, if ever. Why? Simply being, none of them are major league ready yet. Till then, they are still in development, pure and simple. Oh, we all hope they get there, of course. But, will they?

It’s like the Cueto contract with the Royals, getting back 3 talented left handed pitchers, I would still make that trade. And, I believe many others would, also. For, initially, it looked excellent for us. But, in the long run, it did minimal.

Given that, though, I still would have made these trades, or at least something equivalent. If anything, tweeking it 1 or 2 ways:

– getting players that are closer to major league ready – getting players that are in a variety of positions. Yeah, yeah, yeah, SS’s have athletism and, thus, could possibly switch positions. I emphasize “could possibly”. That doesn’t mean they can, that doesn’t mean they will.

“Then we just trade them”. Then, we have to find a team who would want them, who has what we want, the other team being willing to part with that we want, etc. Wouldn’t it have simply been easier to find that person in the first place?

So, yes, I’m happy, not down at all. It could have been better. But, I’m also a realist. This is just one part, one brick of many that need to be laid. We may still see another house cleaning or two. You don’t think that if Votto and Moose have good seasons next season that we aren’t going to look to trade them off? That any FA’s that we bring in next year to simply field a team, if they have a good year, that we would trade them off again?

Using Castellini’s statement, “We are in a better position today.” I’m on the bandwagon. But, I’m looking at 2025, 2024 at the earliest, before I believe we are talking playoffs.

Generally agree here, but consider the differences in the Castillo and Mahle trades – the fear in the Castillo trade is that we may never see those guys in MLB. They’re all still pretty far away. The Mahle trade, though, does answer your concern about “closer to MLB ready”. Steer and Strand may both make the 26 man out of ST next year, and if not, should be mid-season callups.

The existential fear, of course, is that with last winter’s trades, the draft, and these trades, we’ve just acquired several dozen Dilson Herreras, though a “Dozen Dilsons” does make a great name for a touring rap tribute group.

Nope. What GM doesn’t love a good rebuild? It’s 5 years of job security.

Krall assembled the last, what, two or three teams? which includes some history-making pitching staffs (not in a good way) and a club that is 20 games under .500. It’s too easy to say that he is just a puppet. Nobody is saying this is easy in Cincy but he’s shown he can’t build a championship roster without stockpiling prospects and hoping for the best. And we don’t know that yet, either.

Idk? If Krall is responsible for bringing on Moose then he deserves alot of blame there, but Bauer, Miley, Gray, Castellanos, and Shogo? They had a pretty talented squad but couldn’t hit. On to 2021 and they were in great position to make the playoffs once they got Lorenzen back and picked up Givens, but the whole team collapsed in September against the also-rans. Now you could blame Krall for starting the season with Bedrosian and DeLeon and all those scrubs last year, but Antone and Sims are always hurt

This season we all complained when everyone left or got dealt off, but none of those guys have done that much. Geno has been decent and Sonny Gray for 5 innings, but thats about it.

I was going to say Krall dodged a bullet with all those guys. Castellanos and Winker have been bad and Miley is done. Sonny is on his last legs too

IRM> Getting Barnhart and Miley off the books without even paying a cent of buyout money was nothing short of brilliant IMO. But that and Gray was as far as they needed to go.

I think Castellanos would have (and even wanted to) sign with the Reds after Miami bailed on him. Assuming he would have signed the same deal as he did in Philly, they should have been able to swing that b/c it is only $2M more a season than the back end of his deal was with the Reds if he didn’t opt out. The key might have been to dump Moose or Suarez and pay $0.50 on the dollar.

Williams signed Moose not Krall.

We had a lot of square pegs that didn’t fit into the round holes on our roster. The Reds had 5 3B’s in the field, 0 ML SS’s on the roster, which lead to poor fielding, and several platoon quality LH hitters. The last team was constructed very poorly. Krall will have a blank slate starting in 24, but a much cleared slate in 23. These young guys are athletic players who are all excellent defenders. Steals should go up, more 1st to 3rds, and less ball getting through the infield.

1B McGarry / Steer / Power on – 3B Collier / McLain / the corners 2B Arroyo / McLain / Best gloves SS Barrero / McLain / up the middle C Stephenson / Vellojin DH Confidan / Steer / Stephenson LF Allen / Siani / Ain’t nothing dropping in this OF CF Marte / Siani / These 4 OF could cover a ton of ground RF De La Cruz / Siani / All 4 could be MLB CF’s

I didn’t forget India, I’d flip him when Collier and Arroyo are ready for their promotions. I’d try to hang onto Stephenson, and slowly transition him to DH once a good back up has arrived, and completely transition him when the backups backup arrives.

Greene / Lodolo / Ashcraft / Abbott / (Petty / Phillips / Bonnin / Roa)

Diaz / Antone / Boyle / Williamson Santillan / Stoudt / Moreta / SanMartin

I’m thinking that the Castillo and Mahle trades have totally given Reds brass a different outlook on how the better players on the team will be dealt with. India and Stephenson trade rumors will start 2 years before they reach FA and will be flipped either in the offseason before the season starts or at the trade deadline with 1.5 years remaining. They will try to maximize return trade value for all the better players on the Reds from now for sustainability of the organization. With the hauls we received this year, I feel this may be the best way to go under the current ownership that doesn’t want to spend money. Unfortunately, we will only be attached to our star players until they are 1.5 years away from FA. More focus will be on player development and international and domestic scouting for the draft and scouting players from other teams for trades. Payroll will never go over $100M ever again in this business model. Jmo on the future of the Reds.

I do agree with you the Reds will try to move good players with control (the Rays way) to refill our system. That being said, when the Ray’s had a guy like Franco come up, they pounced on a long term deal. So if a guy like EDLC or Marte continues to develop, and gets to that Franco level, it would still be the Ray’s way to sign him to an extension early in his career. Honestly to me that is a risky move, 11 years is a long time to ask someone to stay healthy and great.

Using Stephenson for my example, I’d wait until the offseason before his final 2 years of control to tender him an offer. I’d offer to buy out his final 2 season plus 1 additional. You’d have him for 7 seasons with a lot less risk than the Rays have with Franco.

Now with EDLC, who could actually be a Franco, Soto, or Tatis level guy. I’d do the same exact move 2 years before, and he’d most assuredly say no. I would then trade him in the offseason or at the deadline at the 1.5 year mark. The Reds can’t afford to sign 25M 35M or soon to be 40M players. Not on a 120M budget.

Current innings pitched for Ashcraft, Greene and Lodolo are 74.1, 102.2 and 51(38.1 Reds, 12.2 Minors). LY they pitched 111.0, 106.1 and 50.2. Lodolo is already at LY innings and Greene just about there. Ashcraft about 5-7 starts away from LY innings. I’m wondering what the boost in innings pitched will be this year for each of them? 25-30 innings more this year? Will we see Greene and Lodolo moved to the bullpen soon to reach their innings limit? Or will they be completely shut down and placed on the IL? If they eventually go to the bullpen to reach their innings limit, 3 of the group from Strickland, Farmer, Gibaut and Detwiler will be DFAd. Then, will Zeuch or Nicolino or McGuire, Dunn(for Greene and Lodolo) and Overton(Ashcraft) take their spots in the starting lineup? Inquiring minds would like to know how the Reds brass will handle these situations in the last 2 months of 2022.

Will Overton return this year? If so, he certainly gets starts unless he goes to MiLB rehab to close the year. Dugger already coming tomorrow, and I would have thought Dunn, except he’s really faltering – maybe best for him to call it a year and prep for ST.

I’d like to see Zeuch and Williamson, if only for 1 or 2 appearances the last 2 weeks.

If they’re serious about the limits, would the really keep the 3 on the roster for spot relief work? Wouldn’t it be better to send them into off season work? Same with TySteve – NO reason for him to return this season – take 6 months and heal.

Overton has an estimated return date of sometime in September. They would have to start the clock on Williamson and I’m not sure they do that in this non playoff run season. As a fan, I’d rather see Greene and Lodolo out of the bullpen than Strickland or Detwiler. 25-30 1 inning appearances at the back end with Diaz and we’ll only need a lead until the 7th inning. Haha Imagine Greene, Lodolo and Diaz at the back end. Add Ashcraft to the mix in September. Nasty boys 2.0. and then some. Lol The organization would never do that, but very interesting to think about. Also agree about Stephenson. Romine, Papierski and Garcia should finish out the year.

Oh yeah – the dreaded clock on Williamson. McGuire and Nicolino it is.

Another idea is a series of bullpen games for the top 3 – say 30 pitches each, and hope that gets you 5 or 6 innings.

Sad that the only reason to keep the lesser arms is to save $, not start the clock, and eat innings at year end. Alas . . .

1) Lodolo innings don’t scare me, he’s had more on his arm in college.

2) Greene and Ashcraft could piggyback 3 to 4 innings.

College? That was 2019. With no 2020 season and 50.2 innings last year, he’s definitely on an innings limit. IL stints last year and an extended IL stint this year, he’s going to be watched carefully going forward. And why would Greene and Ashcraft piggyback when Ashcraft can make another 5-7 full starts based on innings pitched last year. Greene maybe piggyback with a different starter, but should always start the game and not come on in relief. Overton should be back in September some time and will definitely get a look as a starter.

Fair enough piggyback Green with whomever except Dunn. Dunn needs the innings. The “should always start” contradicts the idea of putting them into the pen.

I believe Lodolo was healthy all of 2020 while at the ketchup factory. If so, they had complete control on conditioning his arm for a bigger workload in 21.

Yeah, I’m against a piggyback for Greene and would rather he come out of the bullpen. I’m saying if the organization has him piggyback, he should always start. But yet, he only pitched 50 innings in ‘21

I wonder if finishing the year in the BP would hurt Greene’s development as a starter. He wouldn’t have to work on his change-up or pacing.

Reds used their strength in starting pitching to acquire a bunch of position player prospects .Untill they arrive Krall will plug in free agents just as he did with Pham and Drury this year.Right now and probably some of next year they must find out how many holes they have to plug which is just as critical as getting the prospects.It can not be about Farmer is better or Reynolds or Solano just to name a few.Its about how many of the young players can help next year in those spots occupied by players on the down side of their career.For the first time in ages we can see a plan.May work or it may not but I can assure you if we start opening day next year without finding out about these young guys and our roster has Joey and Moose and those 3 guys I mentioned above on it as key pieces we are looking at 2025 or later to even compete in the worst division in baseball.Reds need to find difference makers and maybe they don’t have one but these vets ain’t difference makers and other then Joey never have been.

Too accurate – the opening day roster may look ugly, but the real disaster will be if it is unchanged after 5 or 6 weeks. Vital that they plan to starting moving new talent in well before June, however orderly they want to keep it.

I’m thinking only Farmer on the team next year with JV and Moose. They should be the only 3 position players in their 30’s. Farmer still arb eligible. Solano and Reynolds should not be signed to major league deals. If they want to sign minor league deals with ST invite, that’s ok. But, we have more than enough IFs in the minors that should get a look instead of them. I think that we also have more than enough OFs that we won’t need to sign any FAs. The Reds need to let JV and Moose know that they will have reduced roles in ‘23 in their final year of contract. Yes, no option year in ‘24 will be given.

Yes to all this, but at some point, if not next year, they will likely need a significant FA OFer. As it may be turning out, the Castellanos deal could be the template – mutual options both ways, no more than 4 years- 3 if past 30 yrs old.

Perhaps a 1b FA as an alternative last resort if the market is more abundant.

In ‘24, payroll will be so low with JV and Moose gone that MLB might force the Reds to spend money and sign FAs. With no FA signings, the payroll for ‘24 might be in $40-50M range for 40 players. Majority of the roster will be making league minimum or close to it. BC will be laughing all the way to the bank. Lol

Krall’s done a good job with what he’s had. He certainly exacted a lot of talent for the organization to try and develop. The Castellini’s/ownership are the problem. Have been.

Funny how people are saying the players who left or traded wouldn’t of helped this team this year. The same players who helped the two previous seasons. The issue was the bullpen last year. Two years ago offense faced a better team. It happens, however to suggest reds would have same record or worse with those players who left is just silly and ignoring the last few years.

Time will tell in a few years, however I for one have had enough. Don’t think I want to go through another “rebuild ” as a Reds fan. Championship teams are built with a mixture of players. Unless your the Yankees and its over 30 club. Oops there goes the over 30 argument huh..

Anyway enough silliness. Reds will never win a championship with current ownership/Gm at the helm.

Ownership, seems unlikely, GM, TBD. He’s had a good week.

100% correct Kevin. Don’t worry if any of these prospects ever make it to the major leagues, as soon as, they strike out a couple of times or throw to the wrong base or make a base running mistake, many here will be ready to run them out of town on a rail.

The Reds have competed in years like 2012 and some others, but they were competing for a playoff spot not the world series. This is the most good quality prospects I’ve ever seen the Reds have. They have 30 to 40 prospects that could have a chance to be major leaguers. Most of them won’t but the potential is there. With better management and more money to spend after next year, the Reds can enter a phase of not trying to simply gain a playoff position, but for the first time in a long time they may be able to compete for a World Series title. I don’t want the Reds just to be competitive, but to have a chance to be the winner of a World Series title. Now thats what it should be all about. Better times ahead!

Hey, I will tell you what is next. We keep going to the Reds ball games. Why? There is nothing else going on in Cincinnati, except the Bengals, and they do not play in August.

So, it is what it is.

Stop crowning Krall. You have to have pitching and they very little. Terrible starting rotation as well as bullpen. They now have no power hitters. What a mess.

To answer the question posed by Richard, the Reds should not spend any money on players that are currently outside of the organization and should fire Bell at the end of this season. With a new business model based on creating sustainability for the organization, we need a manager that is not dead set on playing veterans and that can be flexible when putting out the lineup on a daily basis. ‘23 will be the perfect timing to create a new culture for the organization. The moves by Krall starting this past offseason has the Reds moving away from an older, slow unathletic team that focused on power to one that should be much more athletic, younger and more versatile and flexible. There should be more emphasis placed on the fundamentals of the game. Base running, hitting the cutoff man, hitting behind runners, rundowns, lining up the catch properly to get off a good throw, etc. are all things that I’ve seen this season that absolutely needs to be improved. Basic hustling, running out grounders and fly balls hard needs to be done at all times. In baseball, compared to other major sports, the amount of max or near max effort that needs to be exerted is far less. It erks me to see players “Cadillacing”. Besides the pitcher and catcher, position players need to give max or near max effort for some 25-30 minutes per 2 hour 45 minute game swinging, running on the bases, fielding or catching and throwing. As professionals, totally unacceptable to be “dogging it”. Jmo

Surprised at how many people are down about the trades. Reds weren’t winning anything with that group and they are finally going to do an actual rebuild. The lower minors are loaded right now. I’d probably try to sign Stephenson to a longer-term deal and they could gamble with one or two of the young starters as well to gain some extra years of control. India I’m less sure about because they have lots of kids that could replace him and he’s only a so-so fielder. If they don’t want to move him to 3B, they might be able to leverage him into a good bullpen arm or two or a young OF, which they are sorely lacking.

They’ll be fun and maybe better than expected next year with 2024 the year to compete for the division.

They are going to have to extend some of their base group at some point, or else they will have to trade them around the time the young bucks come up which only extends the misery of the perpetual rebuild. I think I’ll continue spend my money on other things to do until the ownership shows it is willing to spend to fill the holes. I’ve been supportive of Krall this year, as it was obvious what his marching orders were and he did the best he could under the circumstances.